The economy is in crisis mode

IHK Ostbrandenburg presents the results of its early summer 2026 business climate survey

The Business Climate Index (BCI) has fallen to 76 points in East Brandenburg. Similar figures have previously only been recorded during very severe economic crises, such as during the coronavirus pandemic. By way of comparison, the growth threshold stands at 100 points. The bottom line is that, rather than growing, the regional economy has lost a further 18 ECI points since the start of 2026.

The data shows that the regional economy is no longer in a short-term slump but is facing a persistent structural strain, and the hoped-for economic upturn has failed to materialise. This is particularly evident in the pessimistic business expectations.

“So far, there has been a lack of economic policy impetus and reliable political objectives to reinvigorate investment and growth. Despite numerous announcements of reforms, many companies have not yet noticed any tangible relief,” explains Monique Zweig, Chief Executive of the East Brandenburg Chamber of Industry and Commerce. “That said, companies clearly identify energy and raw material costs, the economic policy framework and labour costs as the key levers needed for an economic upturn.”

All sectors and company sizes are suffering from structural pressures and pessimistic expectations – albeit to varying degrees. The retail sector is performing particularly poorly, with a KKI of 58 points, as is the transport and logistics sector, which has dropped to just 53 points. Both sectors are suffering massively from consumer reluctance and rising costs. Manufacturing, too, remains well below the growth threshold with a KKI of 72 points. Although the construction sector is showing a slight improvement, reaching 84 points, it also remains well below previous levels. The service sector is losing its previous stabilising role and has fallen from 105 to 79 points.

Across all sectors, the main pressures cited are high energy and raw material prices (79%), economic policy conditions (73%) and high labour costs (59%). Overall, companies are adopting a defensive stance and prioritising adaptation over growth.

Specifically, 25.7 per cent of all companies surveyed describe their current business situation as good, 50.8 per cent as satisfactory and 23.5 per cent as poor. Expectations are significantly more negative than the current situation. Here, only 4.8 per cent expect business to improve in the coming months, 46.9 per cent expect it to remain the same and 48.4 per cent expect it to worsen.

Investment intentions have stagnated since the start of 2026. The level remains low – only half of all companies intend to invest at all. Of these, 18.3 per cent plan to invest more (start of 2026 – 20.8 per cent) and 7.9 per cent plan to scale back their investments (start of 2026 – 7.5 per cent).

A further decline in staff numbers is expected. On average across East Brandenburg, 31.1 per cent of companies plan to reduce their workforce.
 

Analysis by sector

In the manufacturing sector, over a third (35.3%) of firms describe their business situation as poor. More than half (53.2%) expect business to deteriorate in the future. Only 6.0 per cent expect business to improve.
On a positive note, order intake has stabilised. 68 per cent of industrial firms report that order intake has remained stable (56.9%) or increased (10.8%). And around two-thirds of industrial firms report higher (21.0%) or stable (44.4%) exports. 

In the construction sector, the business situation has improved slightly. The majority of firms (55.6%) report a satisfactory situation and a quarter (26.9%) report good business. However, due to rising energy and raw material prices and labour costs, expectations remain modest. As a result, 41.7 per cent of construction firms expect business to deteriorate in the future.

In the retail sector , sentiment has deteriorated. Only 7.4 per cent of retailers describe their business situation as good (start of 2026 – 19.1 per cent), whilst 38.9 per cent assess their business situation as poor (start of 2026 – 25.1 per cent). This applies to both wholesalers and retailers. Wholesalers, at 95 per cent, cite rising energy and raw material prices as their top risk, whilst 76.9 per cent of retailers name the economic policy framework as their greatest burden.

Among service providers, the economy is slumping. The business climate index for this sector has fallen to 79 points, which is 26 points lower than at the start of 2026. This is all the more striking given that the services sector has always proved very resilient in the past. Just under half of service providers (47.4 per cent) expect business conditions to deteriorate, whilst only 4.0 per cent anticipate an improvement.  The willingness to invest has fallen slightly to 51.3 per cent, with the total volume of investment also declining. The sector also anticipates staff cuts. 75.3 per cent of the service providers surveyed see the economic policy framework as their top risk, followed by energy and raw material prices at 75.0 per cent.

The transport sector has stabilised at a low level. For instance, 12.2 per cent of transport and logistics companies describe their business situation as good and 60.9 per cent as still satisfactory. However, two out of three companies in the transport sector (67.0 per cent) expect a less favourable business situation, whilst none anticipate an improvement. One reason for this is the rise in fuel prices, which 90.4 per cent of transport companies cite as an economic risk. Against this backdrop, the willingness to invest has also fallen – to just 41.2 per cent. However, those transport companies that are investing expect their expenditure to rise.