Industry with historically poor order situation

IHK Ostbrandenburg presents the results of its Fall 2025 economic survey

The economic climate index in East Brandenburg has risen by two points to 90 compared to early summer, but remains below the growth threshold of 100 points. The development varies greatly according to sector and company size. The situation is particularly critical in industry, where weak demand due to geopolitical uncertainties coincides with rising costs. In other sectors, however, the economic downturn appears to have bottomed out. Overall, the economic mood shows stability among smaller companies and fears among larger companies.
 

"The survey results reflect the growing crisis resilience of our regional companies. The construction industry is slowly regaining its footing," explains Monique Zweig, Managing Director of IHK Ostbrandenburg. "At the same time, the historically poor order situation in the industry and the reluctance to invest in many cases are cause for concern."

In concrete terms, 29.1 percent of all companies surveyed described their current business situation as good, 51.6 percent as satisfactory and 19.3 percent as poor. In terms of expectations, 5.9% expect business to improve in the coming months, 62.5% expect business to remain the same and 31.6% expect business to deteriorate.

Investment intentions are on the decline compared to the start of 2025. For example, 17.1% of companies want to invest more (start of 2025 – 19.5%) and ten percent want to reduce their investments (start of 2025 – 7.1%). In contrast, demand for personnel is expected to increase slightly. However, these average values vary greatly depending on the sector.

The analysis by sector

In industry, a quarter of companies describe their business situation as poor. And almost half (45.6%) expect business to get worse in the future, with only 6.6% expecting business to improve. Worryingly, for the first time in 20 years, a majority (59.4%) of companies are reporting a decline in incoming orders.
 

"Industrial companies are struggling with a complex mix of negative effects over which they themselves have little influence. These include political framework conditions, sharply rising costs for personnel, energy and raw materials as well as falling demand," explains Monique Zweig. "European, federal and state politicians are called upon to take countermeasures as quickly as possible."

The business situation in the construction industry has improved significantly. The majority of construction companies (70.4%) expect the situation to stabilize. As a result of the improved order situation, staff cuts are also being slowed down. However, many companies are still reluctant to invest, with only just under one in three (31.5%) indicating a willingness to invest. Without targeted relief and investment stimuli, the recovery in the sector threatens to stagnate.

The mood in retail has also brightened, although around half of retailers (45.9%) still describe their business situation as poor. This is mainly due to the deterioration in the wholesale sector, while the retail sector is slowly recovering after a sharp low. Retailers in particular are expecting further pressure on personnel costs, obviously due to the rising minimum wage. Both retailers and wholesalers see the greatest risks for themselves in the economic policy framework (83.7%). Another major risk is domestic sales – i.e. pressure from online retail.

The service providers are proving robust. The economic climate index for this sector of 98 points shows that neither euphoria nor crisis are noticeable. The majority of companies (63.4%) are confident that business will continue at the current level in the future. The willingness to invest is high at 61.1%, even though the overall investment volume is declining. This shows that many companies are taking a long-term view. The sector's personnel plans remain stable. 62.3% of respondents see their top risk in the economic policy framework conditions, followed by a shortage of skilled workers at 49.6%.

The transport industry has apparently bottomed out and is stabilizing. A total of 73.4 percent of transport and logistics companies are satisfied with their business situation. This is also confirmed by the recent increase in willingness to invest of 68.3%. However, the economic climate index of 82 points still shows that there is still some catching up to do to achieve a sustainable upturn in the sector. In terms of personnel, the focus is on retaining the workforce.